Should I buy SM Prime Holdings stock in 2025?

What is SM Prime Holdings?

How much is SM Prime Holdings stock?

The price of SM Prime Holdings stock is stable this week. As of today, SMPH trades at ₱23.10, with no change over the past 24 hours or seven days. The company’s market capitalization stands at ₱667.01 billion, while the average daily trading volume over the last three months is about 8 million shares.

Given these figures, investors should note the moderate volatility and steady dividend profile as they consider potential opportunities in the Philippine property sector.

Our full analysis on SM Prime Holdings stock

After reviewing SM Prime Holdings’ latest financial results and examining the stock’s trajectory over the past three years, our multi-factor analysis—integrating key financial ratios, technical signals, market dynamics, and peer benchmarking—presents a compelling case for renewed scrutiny of this blue-chip property developer. As macroeconomic conditions in the Philippines remain robust and sectoral fundamentals show resilience, SM Prime Holdings stands out among its peers, with visible momentum in both its operating performance and strategic priorities. So, why might SM Prime Holdings stock once again become a strategic entry point into Philippine real estate in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

SM Prime Holdings (PSE: SMPH) has exhibited defensive qualities amid market volatility, maintaining robust operational performance even as its share price has consolidated. As of May 27, 2025, SMPH trades at ₱23.10, registering a 6-month change of -4.36% and a 1-year change of -8.35%, compared to a 52-week range of ₱21.70 to ₱33.45. This price action suggests the stock may be nearing a cyclical bottom, especially given strong underlying fundamentals.

• Double-digit earnings momentum: Q1 2025 net income surged 11% YoY to ₱11.9 billion, with all business segments posting gains.
• Strong cash dividends: On April 29, 2025, SMPH declared ₱0.48 per share in cash dividends—an ordinary plus special payout—affirming management’s confidence in cash flows and rewarding steady shareholders.
• Steady capital expenditure: Development investments of ₱19.3 billion in Q1 2025 reinforce the company’s long-term commitment to organic growth.

On a macro level, the Philippine economy continues to benefit from solid domestic consumption—one of the pillars supporting SM Prime’s retail, residential, and hospitality businesses. The thriving MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, Exhibitions) sector, rising urbanization, and sustained demand for modern lifestyles further favor SMPH’s diversified property portfolio. In this context, the market appears positioned to reward companies with dominant market positions and resilient earnings profiles.

Technical Analysis

• Indicators: The 5-day moving average is trending slightly above price (Buy), whereas the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day averages indicate residual downward pressure, typical of a stock in consolidation after a significant correction. The RSI at 44.49 signals that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold; room exists for upward momentum once key supports hold.
• MACD: With a reading at -0.168, sentiment remains cautious, but absence of oversold conditions indicates a foundation for reversal should positive catalysts materialize.
• Support and Resistance: Strong support levels are identified at ₱21.85 and ₱22.30—close to recent lows—while resistance awaits at ₱25.20, ₱26.00, and ₱27.50. This technical configuration often precedes volatility compression and, eventually, directional resolution.
• Short/Medium-Term Structure: Momentum indicators point toward a stabilization phase, suggesting that, for patient investors, current levels may represent an excellent opportunity to build positions ahead of a potential technical rebound.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue and Profitability: Q1 2025 total revenues advanced by 7% year-on-year to ₱32.8 billion, while operating income and EBITDA rose 13% and 12% respectively. The broad-based nature of this growth—spanning malls, residential, office/warehouse, and hospitality—underscores the company’s well-diversified engine.
• Attractive Valuation: With a current P/E ratio of 14.24, SMPH trades at a meaningful discount to its historical average and appears undervalued relative to its long-term earnings growth (11% in Q1 2025). Earnings per share continued to expand, and the consensus target price of ₱30.03 implies upside potential of over 30% from present levels—a compelling spread for quality-focused investors.
• Structural Strengths: SMPH commands the largest mall network in Southeast Asia, with 87 malls in the Philippines and 8 in China, while SMDC remains a frontrunner in residential development. The company’s brand equity, dominant market share, and integrated “community-building” business model create powerful barriers to entry, yielding sustainable free cash flow.
• Expansion and Resilience: Forward-looking capital allocations (₱19.3 billion in Q1 2025) reflect both ambition and prudence, targeting strategic land banking and phased expansion that can capture tailwinds from population growth and rising consumer affluence.

Volume and Liquidity

• Sustained Trading Volume: SMPH averages 8 million shares in daily trades (over the prior three months), ensuring ample liquidity and efficient price discovery. This reflects solid market engagement and facilitates nimble portfolio rebalancing.
• Favorable Float Structure: With a public float of roughly 9.98 billion shares—well over a third of total shares outstanding—valuation adjustments tend to be dynamic, as evidenced by responsive pricing during both market rallies and pullbacks. Such a float configuration allows for an orderly accumulation phase at current levels.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Expansion Projects: The rollout of additional malls and residential communities is progressing in line with stated growth targets. High mall occupancy—helped by the return of in-person retail and events—offers an embedded earnings lever.
• Innovation and ESG: SMPH continues to integrate green architecture and sustainability into its developments, in line with rising consumer and investor preferences for ESG-compliant growth.
• Resilient Domestic Economy: In contrast to concerns about global tariffs or external shocks, the Philippines’ domestic focus and robust remittance flows support strong consumption, fortifying SMPH’s earnings base.
• Sector Upgrades: The real estate sector is evolving toward experiential and mixed-use formats, where SMPH is uniquely positioned to lead product innovation and capitalize on new value streams (e.g., co-working, digital integration, lifestyle centers).
• Strategic Partnerships: Emerging opportunities in logistics/warehousing and the continued evolution of the e-commerce-logistics-retail nexus open up new profit pools for SMPH to capture.
• Dividend Attraction: The recently declared cash dividend (₱0.48/share) enhances total return potential, combining capital appreciation with steady income for shareholders.

Investment Strategies

• Short Term (Swing/Value Investors):
• Consider accumulating near key support levels (₱21.85–₱22.30), given the signs of price stabilization and an imminent dividend payout, which often acts as a catalyst for buying pressure.
• Technical low points ahead of major ex-dividend dates or earnings releases often create attractive risk-reward setups.
• Medium Term (Growth-Focused Investors):
• Positioning ahead of anticipated expansion news or quarterly reports may benefit from the company’s consistent operating outperformance.
• The potential for a technical reversal—if support holds and price regains the ₱25.20 resistance—would confirm a new bullish phase, in alignment with historical rebounds from similar drawdowns.
• Long Term (Core Portfolios):
• SMPH’s enduring market leadership, brand strength, and integrated business model justify inclusion as a core position for investors seeking secular exposure to Philippine property and consumer megatrends.
• With stable dividend yields, low payout ratios (30%), and ample growth runway, SMPH aligns well with compounding strategies and low volatility objectives over a multi-year period.

Is It the Right Time to Buy SM Prime Holdings?

Synthesizing technical and fundamental evidence, SM Prime Holdings currently appears to represent an excellent opportunity for investors aiming to participate in the next phase of Philippine real estate growth. The stock is trading at the lower end of its 52-week range, supported by resilient financial performance, sector dominance, and clear earnings visibility. A compelling combination of discounted valuation, strong dividend signals, and powerful growth catalysts suggests the stock is poised to enter a new bullish cycle—potentially unlocking significant shareholder value. For those considering entry or portfolio rebalancing, SMPH may offer just the right combination of stability, upside, and capacity to benefit from the Philippines’ ongoing transformation.

As market attention shifts back to sector leaders and operational momentum accelerates, SM Prime Holdings stands well-placed to capture future outperformance—making the present juncture one that investors should seriously consider in the search for enduring growth potential.

How to buy SM Prime Holdings stock in PH?

Investing in SM Prime Holdings (SMPH) has never been easier for retail investors in the Philippines. With just a few clicks, you can securely buy SM Prime shares using a regulated online broker, providing both peace of mind and convenience. There are two main ways to gain exposure to SMPH: you can buy shares directly (spot buying) and hold them long-term, or you can trade Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for more flexible and leveraged strategies. Below, we detail how each method works, along with examples—plus, you’ll find a thorough broker comparison further down the page to help you choose the right platform.

Spot Buying

A cash or spot purchase means you are buying real shares of SM Prime Holdings listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE), which you can hold as an asset in your portfolio. When you buy shares via a local or international broker, you usually pay a fixed commission per order—typically ranging from ₱20 to ₱100 per trade, depending on your broker. For example, if the current SMPH share price is ₱23.10 and you invest the equivalent of PHP 56,000 (about USD 1,000), you can acquire roughly 2,422 shares (PHP 56,000 ÷ ₱23.10), accounting for a typical brokerage fee of ₱300 (or about USD 5).

Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 10% to ₱25.41, the value of your shares increases to about PHP 61,600. Result: a PHP 5,600 (or USD 100) gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on the price movements of SM Prime Holdings shares without owning the actual stock. Instead, you open a position with a CFD broker, who charges a small spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and, if you hold overnight, a financing fee. CFDs allow leverage, amplifying both potential gains and risks. For instance, with a USD 1,000 (approx. PHP 56,000) deposit and 5x leverage, you gain market exposure of USD 5,000 (PHP 280,000) to SMPH.

Gain scenario

If the stock price rises by 8%, your position’s value increases by 8% × 5 = 40%, resulting in a USD 400 (or PHP 22,400) gain on your original USD 1,000 bet (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, supported order types, and available platforms to ensure you select the best fit for your goals and risk profile. Whether you prefer the simplicity of owning SMPH shares or the flexibility and leverage of CFDs, your choice should match your investment objectives and appetite for risk. Remember, our detailed broker comparison is available further down the page to support your decision-making process.

Our 7 tips for buying SM Prime Holdings stock

The latest news about SM Prime Holdings

SM Prime Holdings maintained robust financial momentum in Q1 2025, posting an 11% year-on-year growth in net income to ₱11.9 billion. This solid performance was underpinned by stable revenue increases across all key business segments, with malls delivering the lion’s share of earnings (₱8.1 billion, up 13%). Residential, office/warehouse, and hospitality also saw healthy earnings growth, reflecting resilient consumer demand and high occupancy rates locally. These results confirm the company’s strong foothold in the Philippine real estate and retail market, with operations continuing to benefit from domestic consumption and ongoing reopening tailwinds.

On April 29, 2025, SM Prime declared a substantial cash dividend of ₱13.86 billion, with enhanced shareholder rewards. This dividend payout, scheduled for May 28, 2025, includes a special 5% bonus on top of the 25% regular payout from 2024 net income, signaling management’s confidence in cash flow stability and commitment to delivering shareholder value. The dividend equates to ₱0.48 per share and is well-covered, supporting income-seeking investors and reinforcing the group’s reputation for consistent and reliable capital returns.

Capital expenditure remained steady at ₱19.3 billion in Q1 2025, primarily deployed for expansion projects in the Philippines. This disciplined investment strategy emphasizes organic growth within the domestic market, particularly through the continued rollout of new malls and residential communities. The company’s approach to strategic land banking and development cements its long-term prospects and competitive positioning within the country’s rapidly urbanizing economy, ensuring a sustainable project pipeline for future growth.

Technical analysis indicates a neutral short-term outlook but a mild bearish trend in the mid- to long-term, urging caution among traders. Despite the strong fundamentals, the stock price has remained unchanged over the past week and trades toward the lower bound of its 52-week range. Most moving averages and indicators suggest selling pressure, though the five-day moving average shows a positive signal. While this may temper short-term buying activity, the underlying resilience of the core business and a favorable consensus target price of ₱30.03 (about 30% upside) continue to provide an attractive medium-term narrative for investors, especially those focused on fundamentals.

Structural growth catalysts remain strong, with positive domestic trends supporting mall, residential, and commercial segments in the Philippines. Demand is buoyed by rising consumer activity, ongoing increases in retail and commercial foot traffic, and a packed schedule of events benefiting hotels and convention centers. SM Prime’s strategic focus on integrated development and experiential retail positions it to capture continued urbanization and spending growth, suggesting that the group’s market leadership in Philippine property remains secure and primed for further expansion.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.