Should I buy ASML stock in 2025? Full Analysis for Philippine Investors

What is ASML?

How much is ASML stock?

The price of ASML stock is flat this week. As of now, ASML is trading at $732.49 with no change over the last 24 hours and a weekly increase of 5.69%.

ASML's stock beta is 1.74, signaling higher volatility compared to the broader market. Investors in the Philippines should keep an eye on ASML’s dynamic price movement, as its strong global position in semiconductor technology presents both growth opportunities and periods of sharp fluctuation.

Our full analysis on ASML stock

Over the past three years, we have rigorously evaluated ASML Holding N.V. by analyzing its latest financial statements, scrutinizing the stock’s performance across multiple cycles, and integrating a diverse set of data points—including technical signals, market trends, and competitive positioning—using proprietary quantitative models. Our findings place ASML at the heart of critical semiconductor supply chains, revealing both enduring strengths and timely opportunities. So, why might ASML stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global semiconductor equipment sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

ASML’s stock trajectory over the past year tells a nuanced story of resilience amid cyclical industry shifts. As of May 27, 2025, ASML trades at $732.49, having stabilized after a period of sharp correction: the stock is down 16.97% over the last six months and 20.86% year-over-year, yet it has rebounded 5.69% in just the past week, suggesting renewed market confidence.

Several positive recent events are underpinning this momentum. The Q1 2025 results surpassed expectations, with quarterly net sales reaching €7.7 billion ($8.77 billion) and a gross margin of 54%—both ahead of guidance. This performance comes amid ongoing strength in the semiconductor industry, where global demand for advanced chips is surging, fueled by accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing across Asia, the US, and increasingly within emerging tech economies like the Philippines.

The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable for semiconductor equipment leaders. While some geopolitical uncertainty—particularly new tariff regimes and evolving trade policies—may create short-term volatility, the secular drivers for semiconductor innovation remain intact. With chipmakers investing heavily in next-generation fabs and digital infrastructure, ASML’s unique role as the leading provider of photolithography systems positions it at the epicenter of value creation.

Technical Analysis

• Relative Strength Index (RSI 14-day): At 59.53, signaling neutral-to-slightly-bullish momentum, with significant headroom before entering overbought territory.
• MACD: The MACD stands at 20.51, confirming positive and accelerating momentum as recent price action crosses critical thresholds.
• Moving Averages: The 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all show bullish alignments. Notably, 92.86% of signals derived from these averages are in a bullish configuration, underlining the strong structural undertone.
• Support Levels: Solid technical supports are established at $643.37, $660.10, and $736.03, suggesting limited downside risk.
• Resistance Levels: The key upside barriers at $675.95, $680.71, and $756.34 are within reach, and a sustained close above them could trigger a substantial upward move.

In aggregate, the technical structure reveals that ASML may be poised at an ideal entry juncture—either near a technical low or on the cusp of a new breakout, backed by strengthening short- and medium-term momentum.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue and Earnings Growth: The most recent quarter saw net income of €2.4 billion ($2.73 billion) on net sales of €7.7 billion. Guidance for full-year 2025 projects net sales between €30-35 billion (15% annualized growth), with EPS expected to increase at 14% per year.
• Profitability: Gross margins remain industry-leading at over 50%, driven by pricing power in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and the delivery of new High NA systems.
• Valuation: While ASML’s trailing P/E of 30.87 and forward P/E of 27.10 represent a premium to the broader semiconductor equipment market (average P/E: 25.40), this is well supported by a PEG ratio of 1.69 and a price-to-sales ratio of 8.74. Such valuations are justified by both current performance and visible long-term expansion trajectories.
• Structural Strengths: ASML holds a near-monopoly in the extremely complex EUV lithography segment, with broadening deployments of its high numerical aperture technology at leading fabs. Its €2.7 billion Q1 2025 share buyback and 4.9% dividend hike (now $6.95 annual payout) reinforce a shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy.
• Market Leadership: With 44,100+ employees, over 15 global locations, and a consistently expanding customer base across both established and emerging semiconductor markets, ASML’s brand and technological leadership remain unrivaled.

From a fundamental standpoint, ASML exhibits the hallmarks of sustainable competitive advantage and long-term compound growth, supporting the premise that current valuations reflect attractive entry points for prospective investors.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading activity in ASML remains robust, with an average daily volume of 1.67 million shares over the past three months—indicating deep market liquidity and healthy investor interest even amid recent volatility.

• Market Confidence: Steady trading volumes at these levels are a reliable proxy for institutional confidence, facilitating smooth price discovery and efficient execution for both retail and professional investors.
• Float Characteristics: A sizable float and active buyback program (over €2.7 billion repurchased in Q1 2025) further enhance share value dynamics, supporting a platform for future appreciation with relatively low risk of illiquidity-driven volatility.

For investors in the Philippine market—where equities liquidity and market access are pivotal—ASML’s dual-listing on Euronext Amsterdam and NASDAQ provides operational flexibility and heightened accessibility.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Technological Leadership: The successful shipment of the fifth High NA EUV lithography system—now deployed at three key customer sites—reaffirms ASML’s technological primacy.
• AI-driven Demand: Booming requirements for advanced chips, spurred by AI, data centers, and the proliferation of edge computing, underpin persistent global demand for ASML’s core products.
• Strategic Expansions: Ongoing initiatives to extend reach in North America and Asia—particularly in response to “friendshoring” and semiconductor supply chain localization—hold promise for further market share gains.
• ESG Initiatives: ASML continues to advance its leadership in sustainable manufacturing practices, which is increasingly attracting ESG-oriented capital and supporting premium valuations.
• Industry Tailwinds: Sector-wide capital expenditure cycles, government incentives for domestic semiconductor production, and rising digital transformation budgets in Asian economies—including the Philippines—create a structurally favorable backdrop.

Together, these factors set the stage for ASML to capitalize on new growth vectors, fostering an environment where upward price re-rating and ongoing outperformance appear highly plausible.

Investment Strategies

• Short-term: Technical indicators suggest the stock is approaching either a technical low or on the verge of breaking above major resistance, which could precipitate a swift rally as buyers return. Opportunities may arise from supportive momentum and tight stop-loss strategies anchored to well-defined support levels.
• Medium-term: With confirmed Q1 outperformance and a robust Q2 outlook, investors may find particularly attractive risk/reward profiles over the next several months. Potential re-ratings amid new product launches or positive earnings reports could act as powerful catalysts.
• Long-term: The case for sustained compound growth is anchored in structural tailwinds such as AI, global digitalization, and ASML’s unique EUV moat. Disciplined accumulation strategies—especially during industry corrections or market-wide sell-offs—may deliver outsized returns as secular growth trends reassert.

Across all horizons, the confluence of bullish technicals, strong liquidity, and outstanding fundamentals supports a view that current price levels could represent a favorable positioning ahead of anticipated catalysts.

Is it the Right Time to Buy ASML?

In sum, ASML today presents a robust platform for investors seeking exposure to the highest echelons of the semiconductor equipment sector. Its world-leading technological portfolio, dominant EUV market share, and disciplined financial management continue to underpin strong growth, even in the face of periodic market dislocation.

• Exceptional innovation and near-monopoly in advanced lithography technology
• Industry-leading gross margins and healthy earnings growth
• Shareholder-centric capital returns through buybacks and annual dividend hikes
• Resilient trading volume and deep market liquidity
• Access to expanding global growth drivers, particularly in AI and digital infrastructure

While external risks—such as trade policy uncertainty or cyclical slowdowns—are worth monitoring, the company’s entrenched leadership and the powerful combination of technical and fundamental reserves justify renewed attention at current levels. The stock’s stability, improving momentum, and positive fundamental trajectory suggest ASML may be entering a new bullish phase, making it a stock that deserves close consideration for any diversified technology portfolio.

For investors in the Philippines and beyond, ASML embodies the kind of sustained competitive edge and growth potential that seem to represent an excellent opportunity in 2025’s evolving global tech landscape.

How to buy ASML stock in the PH?

Buying ASML stock online is simple and secure for retail investors in the Philippines, thanks to the many regulated international brokers now available. There are two main ways to access ASML shares: through direct (spot) buying, which means purchasing the actual shares, or by using Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for more flexible trading, including leverage. Both methods can be managed entirely online after verifying your identity and funding your account, with your investments protected thanks to strict regulatory frameworks. The comparison of available brokers—highlighting fees and features—is provided further down the page.

Spot Buying

When you buy ASML stock for cash, you purchase real shares that you will actually own in your name. This method is suitable for long-term investors who want to benefit from price appreciation and receive dividends. For Philippine investors using international brokers, typical fees include a fixed commission per order.

Important Example

For example, with a $1,000 (around ₱57,000) deposit, and a broker charging a $5 fee per transaction, and with ASML trading at $732.49 per share, you could buy approximately 1.35 shares. Gain scenario: If the ASML share price rises by 10%, your holding’s value increases to $1,100. Result: +$100 gross gain, or a +10% return on your initial investment before fees and taxes.

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading allows you to speculate on the price movement of ASML shares without actually owning them. With CFDs, you can use leverage, meaning your exposure can be higher than your initial stake (but so can the risks). Fees for CFDs typically include a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and, if you hold your position overnight, financing charges.

Important Example

Suppose you trade with $1,000 and apply 5x leverage, giving you exposure of $5,000. Gain scenario: If ASML’s price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. Result: This means a $400 gain on your $1,000 deposit (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final Advice

Before investing in ASML stock, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, available platforms, and account conditions to find the best fit for your needs. Some brokers offer better rates for cash purchases, while others specialize in leveraged CFD trading. Ultimately, the right choice depends on your investment objectives and risk profile. To help you get started, a comprehensive broker comparison tool is available further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying ASML stock

The latest news about ASML

ASML stock posted a 5.69% gain over the past week, signaling renewed investor confidence. This positive momentum is further reinforced by bullish short- and long-term technical indicators, with 92.86% of moving average signals flashing bullish and an RSI of 59.53 indicating neutral to slightly positive strength. The technology sector, spearheaded by semiconductor demand worldwide, continues to benefit from artificial intelligence initiatives, and the strong stock performance is notable for investors in the Philippines, where tech-savvy retail investors and institutional funds actively monitor advanced manufacturing equities.

ASML’s Q1 2025 results surpassed guidance, reporting €7.7 billion in sales and record-high gross margins of 54%. With net income at €2.4 billion and EPS of €6.00, these robust fundamentals highlight the firm's resilience despite broader market headwinds. For professionals in PH, the results are relevant as they underscore the critical importance of semiconductor supply chains flowing into global and regional electronics manufacturing—an industry that is growing in the Philippines through its robust export-oriented electronics sector.

The company is maintaining its lead in lithography innovation, having shipped its fifth High NA EUV system, now deployed at three customer sites. This ongoing deployment strengthens ASML’s technological moat and ensures continued reliance among the world’s largest chip manufacturers—many of whom supply Philippine-based electronics assemblers and exporters. This technical leadership not only supports long-term revenue streams but also underpins the advanced hardware ecosystem that local industry and investors rely on for growth.

ASML has announced a 4.9% increase in its annual dividend and continued its share buyback strategy, with €2.7 billion repurchased in Q1 2025. These capital return initiatives signal management's confidence in sustained cash flow and future growth, features particularly valued by Philippine mutual funds and institutional investors focused on both capital appreciation and stable income streams. The dividend, subject to Dutch withholding tax, remains attractive, particularly within the context of actively managed international equity portfolios in the region.

Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties such as new tariffs and shifting AI-driven chip demand, forward guidance remains optimistic, with full-year net sales targeted at €30-35 billion—about 15% projected growth. This forward-looking stance aligns with industry expectations of surging demand driven by AI and high-performance computing applications—both of which have direct relevance to the PH electronics industry and local market sentiment, as increased semiconductor activity globally tends to flow through to the region's manufacturing output and export growth.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.