Should You Invest in Carnival Stock? A 2025 Guide for Filipinos

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been tracking Carnival's stock performance for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in the Philippines trust us to analyze market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes and do not constitute investment recommendations. In accordance with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by Carnival.

What is Carnival?

How much is Carnival stock?

The price of Carnival stock is rising this week. The current share price stands at $28.83, almost unchanged over the past 24 hours (-0.03%), but up 0.66% over the week. Carnival’s market capitalization is $37.83 billion, with an average daily volume of 25.28 million shares traded over the past three months. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 14.77, does not pay a dividend at present, and its beta is 2.58, indicating notable volatility. Investors in PH should weigh growth opportunities against this higher market risk.

Our Full Analysis of Carnival Stock

After carefully reviewing Carnival’s most recent financial performance and tracing the stock’s trajectory over the last three years, our analysis leverages an integrated, multi-source approach—drawing from advanced financial metrics, technical indicators, comprehensive market data, and a detailed peer review, all synthesized via proprietary algorithms. The result is a robust assessment of Carnival’s standing at the midpoint of 2025. So, why might Carnival stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global travel and leisure sector in 2025?

Recent performance and market context

Carnival’s share price has experienced a remarkable resurgence, climbing to $28.83, up +19.23% over the past six months and +61.06% in the last year, far outperforming most competitors and sector benchmarks. Despite a modest 0.66% weekly uptick, the long-term momentum is unmistakable, driven by resurgent travel demand and capacity constraints that have contributed to strengthening cruise bookings and pricing power. Major recent events such as a record Q2 2025 earnings report—significantly exceeding analyst expectations—and a robust $3 billion bond issuance to refinance secured debt have further improved the company’s financial flexibility. Macroeconomic tailwinds, including a sustained recovery in global tourism, rising consumer confidence, and continued economic reopening across Asia and the Americas, reinforce an exceptionally favorable backdrop for Carnival and its peers. The local travel and investment community in the Philippines has taken note, as the cruise segment’s global expansion increases connectivity to Southeast Asian ports and opens up new destination markets.

Technical analysis

Carnival’s technical picture suggests it may be entering a new bullish phase. Notably, the relative strength index (RSI) stands at 69.39, signaling robust upward momentum yet not fully overbought—indicative of continued buying pressure from both retail and institutional traders. A key technical milestone was the “golden cross,” confirmed when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average ($22.70 vs. $22.65). This powerful signal is historically associated with medium-term bullish runs, especially as the price is now consolidated above all key moving averages—the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day levels—all trending higher. MACD levels confirm this momentum, with a clear separation of the signal line and histogram, further supporting a bullish interpretation. With strong support in the $28.73–$28.96 range and resistance forming only above $30, the risk/reward profile appears highly favorable for new or accumulating investors. Recent trading patterns show a healthy process of consolidation, suggesting that Carnival’s upward move has a strong structural foundation rather than being a mere speculative spike.

Fundamental analysis

From a fundamental perspective, Carnival’s investment case has rarely been stronger in recent years. Revenue for Q2 2025 soared to $6.33 billion, up 9.5% year-on-year, while net income reached $565 million—an extraordinary leap from just $92 million a year earlier. The company’s earnings per share of $0.35 broke through consensus estimates by nearly 46%, demonstrating superior operational execution and demand capture. EBITDA margins hit a near 20-year high, underscoring an impressive return to profitability and improved cost controls across the business. Carnival currently trades at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.77, a compelling valuation that appears modest relative to rapid earnings growth and the sector’s brightening outlook. Structurally, Carnival’s leadership is unchallenged: it is the world’s largest cruise company, commanding 47.4% passenger market share and 39.4% of sector revenue, operating a fleet of over 90 ships spread across 11 premium brands—including several well-known to Southeast Asian travelers. This strategic breadth, combined with targeted investments in guest experience, sustainability (notably LNG-powered ships), and digitalization, strengthens the brand’s ability to generate stable cash flows and weather industry cycles.

Volume and liquidity

Trading activity for Carnival remains exceptionally dynamic, with an average daily volume of 25.28 million shares—a clear reflection of robust market confidence and continuous investor engagement. This high turnover ensures strong liquidity, making entry and exit seamless for both individual and institutional investors. Floating shares remain substantial, with 1.31 billion in circulation, creating a favorable environment for ongoing price discovery and preventing illiquidity-related price manipulation. Persistent high volume, particularly around catalyst events such as earnings announcements or fleet expansion news, often signals renewed interest and sets the stage for orderly upward revaluations.

Catalysts and positive outlook

• Fleet expansion with next-generation LNG-powered ships: Carnival continues to modernize its fleet, which not only reduces costs and boosts ESG appeal, but differentiates it in a market increasingly sensitive to environmental concerns.
• Launch of a new loyalty program in 2026: Targeted at boosting customer retention and cross-brand engagement, this initiative may unlock higher lifetime value per guest and drive additional yield.
• Strengthening financial position: The recent $3 billion bond refinancing preserves capital for strategic investments while improving the debt profile—a key ingredient for long-term value recovery and rating upgrades.
• Sustained double-digit yield growth: Consensus anticipates a 16% growth in yields for the 2024–2025 cycle, reflecting powerful pricing dynamics as occupancy and demand outpace capacity.
• Global demand drivers: Cruising remains uniquely resilient among leisure products, benefiting from demographic trends, growing middle class demand in Asia (including the Philippines), and a strong post-pandemic appetite for experiential travel.
• Operational and digital transformation: Investments in seamless digital booking, onboard automation, and enhanced guest experiences will likely drive both customer satisfaction and operational leverage, translating into higher margins.

Investment strategies

• Short-term: For active traders seeking technical setups, Carnival currently sits near strong support following a bullish “golden cross,” historically associated with extended upswings.
• Medium-term: Investors targeting momentum and earnings growth may find opportunities in anticipation of fleet expansions, major loyalty initiatives, and accelerating yield improvement. Each of these catalysts has the potential to trigger further rerating by sell-side analysts and institutional investors.
• Long-term: For patient investors building conviction over the cycle, Carnival offers durable structural advantages—market leadership, operational scalability, and sticky brand equity that has shown resilience through macroeconomic shocks. The ongoing rebound in global cruise demand, coupled with strategic reinvestment in core assets and digital capabilities, may provide compounding growth over multiple years.

A technically astute approach could involve accumulating on consolidations near the $28.70–$29.00 support range, ahead of potential breakouts above resistance levels at $30.00–$30.40. Such positioning aligns with historical post-golden cross uptrends and provides an appealing entry scenario before the market fully prices in anticipated earnings surprises or positive revisions to forward guidance.

Is it the right time to buy Carnival?

Carnival’s combination of strong recent results, accelerating financial and operational momentum, powerful technical signals, and robust institutional engagement reflects a company in the midst of a dynamic recovery. Its current valuation, relative to both its growth trajectory and historical benchmarks, seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking upside exposure to a leader in global leisure and travel. While risks around leverage and broader economic cycles remain present, the sheer resilience of Carnival’s brand, scale, and management vision point to increasing long-term value creation potential. For investors in the Philippines and the wider Asia-Pacific market, Carnival’s expanding presence and continually rising demand for premium cruise experiences add a compelling local dimension to the stock’s global growth narrative.

In summary, Carnival stands out for its market leadership, attractive fundamentals, and an abundance of bullish catalysts that may support continued rerating through 2025 and beyond. For those seeking a well-positioned, high-potential entry into the resurgent global travel sector, Carnival may now be entering a new and exciting phase—one that justifies renewed investor attention and serious consideration at current levels.

How to buy Carnival stock in the Philippines?

Buying Carnival stock online is simple and safe when you use a regulated broker. You can choose between purchasing actual shares to become a shareholder or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for more flexibility and leverage. Both methods are accessible in the Philippines from your computer or mobile. To help you pick the right option and broker, see the full broker comparison further down the page.

Spot buying

A cash purchase means you directly buy Carnival shares and officially own them, with your shares held in your brokerage account. Philippine brokers usually charge a fixed commission per order—often around ₱250–₱300 (about $5).

Gain scenario

If the Carnival share price is $28.83, you can buy around 34 shares with a $1,000 stake, including a brokerage fee of around $5.

If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.

Result: +$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Cash buying is best for investors who want direct ownership and long-term growth.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Carnival’s stock price movements without owning the underlying shares. With CFDs, you pay the spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and may incur overnight financing charges if you hold your position beyond the day.

Gain scenario

You open a CFD position on Carnival shares, with 5x leverage.

This gives you a market exposure of $5,000.

If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +$400 gain, on a bet of $1,000 (excluding fees).

Trading CFDs is suitable for experienced investors seeking short-term opportunities and higher potential returns—with added risk.

Final advice

Always compare brokers’ fees, features, and asset access before making your investment. The best method for buying Carnival stock depends on your goals, risk appetite, and investment horizon. To ease your decision, check the broker comparison listed below on this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Carnival stock

The latest news about Carnival

Carnival surpasses analyst expectations with record Q2 profits and strong EBITDA margin improvements. Net income for Q2 2025 reached $565 million, a dramatic increase from $92 million last year, with EPS at $0.35 beating consensus by nearly 46%. These results reflect effective cost control, healthy demand for cruises, and operational scaling advantages, reinforcing Carnival’s industry leadership and resilience.

Carnival finalizes $3 billion bond issue to optimize and refinance secured debt maturities. This July funding operation enhances the group’s liquidity, reduces near-term refinancing risk, and demonstrates management’s proactive balance sheet strategy. The refinancing ensures operational stability, supporting strategic fleet investments and long-term expansion, including continued focus on Asia-Pacific deployment.

Golden cross confirmed as the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day average, signaling an ongoing uptrend. Technical signals remain bullish: the RSI is elevated at 69.39, and the stock has gained 61% in a year. The positive trend is confirmed by continued price momentum above all key moving averages, solidifying investor confidence, and increasing Carnival’s attractiveness among Philippine market participants looking for uptrend opportunities.

Carnival maintains its position as global cruise leader, capitalizing on exceptional regional demand in Asia-Pacific. With over 90 ships and 11 brands, Carnival has acknowledged robust bookings from Filipino and Southeast Asian travelers. Ongoing regional initiatives, brand marketing, and increased deployment of LNG-powered vessels are tailored to cater to sustained demand in this fast-growing market.

Upwardly revised annual outlook and robust analyst consensus sustain positive sentiment on the stock. Full-year EPS guidance was raised to $1.97, aligning with strong booking trends through 2026. Market sentiment is decidedly optimistic, with 21 buy recommendations and sustained analyst price targets, reinforcing Carnival’s constructive risk/reward profile for Philippine investors.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.