Should I buy Carnival stock in 2025? (Philippines Edition)

What is Carnival?

How much is Carnival stock?

The price of Carnival stock is slightly down today, currently trading at $22.25 with a 24-hour change of -0.80%. Over the past week, the stock has shown strong momentum with a +15.13% gain. Carnival’s market capitalization now stands at $30.15 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 26.9 million shares over the past three months. The P/E ratio is 14.35, no dividend yield is offered, and its beta of 2.51 suggests above-average volatility. These moves highlight both growth potential and notable price swings, important for PH investors tracking global market trends.

Our full analysis on Carnival stock

Having meticulously reviewed Carnival Corporation’s latest financial disclosures, its stock performance over the previous three years, and a broad spectrum of proprietary quantitative and qualitative indicators, it is clear that the investment case for CCL deserves renewed attention. By blending cutting-edge technical analysis, robust fundamental metrics, and current market data—benchmarked against leading competitors—this review seeks to provide an expert-level perspective for investors considering exposure to the international cruise and leisure industry. So, why might Carnival stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global travel and hospitality sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) has recaptured investor interest with a standout performance over the last 12 months, closing at $22.25 as of May 27, 2025—representing an impressive +42.17% gain year-over-year. The stock’s momentum has picked up further, with a robust +15.13% move just in the past week, comfortably outpacing the broader consumer discretionary sector.

This resurgence is underpinned by favorable developments across multiple fronts:

• Operational Rebound: Having navigated the significant headwinds of the post-pandemic landscape, Carnival has successfully relaunched its global fleet, with passenger demand now cresting above pre-pandemic highs.
• Financial Outperformance: Q1 2025 reports set consecutive records, with both revenues and adjusted EBITDA surpassing expectations.
• Booking Dynamics: Customer deposits and advance bookings have reached all-time highs, further cementing investor confidence in the cruise industry’s recovery.

Globally, the travel sector is revitalizing amid loosening travel restrictions and sustained pent-up demand. For PH-based investors seeking diversification beyond traditional local equities, Carnival offers unique access to international consumer discretionary growth, amplified by USD-denominated asset exposure. The cruise line’s renewed operational strength, paired with a swift rebound in discretionary spending in key markets like North America and Europe, further reinforce auspicious conditions for stock appreciation.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators reveal a stock currently in a constructive phase, supporting a bullish thesis across short and medium-term timeframes:

• Momentum Oscillators: The RSI (14 days) stands at 60.49, indicating healthy momentum without veering into overbought territory—suggesting that upside remains before technical exhaustion occurs.
• MACD: A positive MACD line of 0.95 affirms a buy signal, with a recent bullish crossover pointing toward sustained upward pressure.
• Moving Averages: CCL is trading above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs)—an alignment historically associated with continued rallies. The only note of caution is the price resting just below the 100-day SMA (at $22.21), which if breached decisively, could add further fuel to the advance.
• Support and Resistance: Key support levels at $19.20 and $17.88 have held firm throughout market pullbacks, while resistance at $23.70 and $27.77 now serve as medium-term technical targets as bullish momentum unfolds.
• Price Action Structure: The recent MACD bullish crossover and the price’s resilience above support areas suggest a strong platform for an upward extension.

For technical traders, Carnival currently presents a favorable configuration, with clear upside potential toward resistance and manageable downside risk defined by well-established support.

Fundamental Analysis

Carnival’s improving fundamentals serve as the cornerstone of its bullish narrative:

• Revenue and Profitability: For Q1 2025, Carnival delivered record revenue, with adjusted EBITDA surging by 38% year-over-year to $1.2 billion. Notably, adjusted net income returned to positive territory at $174 million, marking a dramatic swing from a $180 million loss in the prior year. This operational turnaround was achieved ahead of company expectations, with actual EBITDA exceeding the December guidance by $165 million.
• Growth Trajectory: The company is guiding for earnings growth above 30% through 2025, supported by a projected annual revenue growth rate of 7.5%—both robust figures for a mature global travel brand.
• Valuation Metrics: With a P/E ratio of 14.35, CCL trades at a significant discount to sector peers, despite its superior revenue growth. The analyst consensus price target of $28.93 implies a +30% upside from current levels, suggesting the stock remains attractively valued relative to both historical and forward-looking fundamentals.
• Strategic Expansion: Carnival boasts industry leadership—a global fleet of 90+ vessels, visiting over 800 ports, and a diversified brand portfolio encompassing nine standalone cruise brands. This breadth provides resilience and a platform for future growth.
• Innovation and Sustainability: Investment into next-generation, fuel-efficient ships and enhanced sustainability features elevate Carnival’s positioning for the future, responding to both regulatory demands and evolved consumer expectations.
• Brand and Market Share: The company enjoys exceptional brand equity and dominates key international markets, characteristics that underpin pricing power and customer loyalty.

While debt remains elevated (totaling $28.39 billion, D/E ratio at 309.25%), improving cash flow and earnings visibility suggest a clear path to gradual deleveraging, further supporting valuation re-rating.

Volume and Liquidity

Carnival’s average 3-month daily trading volume stands at an impressive 26.9 million shares—testament to its high liquidity and sustained institutional participation:

• Market Confidence: A consistently deep and active market signals robust investor interest, a prerequisite for healthy price discovery and the ability to rapidly respond to both positive catalysts and corrective moves.
• Favorable Float Characteristics: With shares outstanding at 1.17 billion and institutional ownership at 67.70%, CCL benefits from a large, stable capital base—creating a favorable backdrop for dynamic revaluation in response to operational milestones.

High liquidity also facilitates tactical entry and exit strategies, which is especially appealing to PH-based investors allocating capital across major US indices and seeking flexible exposure.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

The forward-looking narrative for Carnival is defined by a confluence of structural drivers and tangible near-term catalysts, including:

• Earnings Acceleration: Company guidance for more than 30% earnings growth in 2025 represents a major catalyst as quarterly reporting cycles unfold.
• Record Advance Bookings: All-time highs in customer deposits and bookings indicate robust, sustained demand and provide strong revenue visibility.
• Strategic Realignment: The integration of P&O Cruises (Australia) into Carnival Cruise Line is expected to deliver operational efficiencies and enhanced brand focus for the region.
• New Markets and Experiences: Expansion into underpenetrated geographies and introduction of new itineraries serve as long-term levers for both revenue growth and competitive differentiation.
• Innovation in ESG: The ongoing investment in sustainable cruise technology positions Carnival at the vanguard of industry best practices—addressing key environmental concerns for regulators, partners, and consumers alike.
• Macroeconomic Tailwinds: The strong rebound in global travel, coupled with the absence of significant new pandemic threats, provides an auspicious backdrop. Secular trends favoring experiential and luxury travel further amplify Carnival’s growth prospects.

Investment Strategies

Carnival’s current technical and fundamental setup provides attractive entry frameworks across several time horizons:

• Short-Term: For momentum traders, the recent bullish MACD crossover, combined with price above key averages, supports opportunistic positioning ahead of upcoming earnings and as technical resistance levels are tested.
• Medium-Term: Investors seeking to ride the next leg of the recovery may consider staged accumulations near support zones ($19.20, $17.88), with an eye on potential upward surprises from quarterly results or fresh booking data.
• Long-Term: Those with a multi-year horizon stand to benefit from the company’s intrinsic strengths—dominant global presence, brand equity, and accelerated sustainability investments—as Carnival capitalizes on the secular expansion of the cruise market. A price near current levels, just below consensus target and before the next phase of earnings momentum, seems to represent an excellent opportunity for long-term value creation.
• Risk Positioning: While high debt and sector cyclicality warrant prudent risk management, the improving cash generation and strong forward visibility mitigate these concerns, particularly as the company demonstrates consistent earnings improvement.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Carnival?

Synthesizing technical, fundamental, and strategic perspectives, Carnival Corporation today embodies the profile of a global recovery leader with clear upside potential:

• Exceptional Momentum: A resounding year-over-year rally and renewed technical strength signal a market consensus shifting decisively positive.
• Fundamental Justification: Record revenue, return to profitability, sector-leading growth projections, and a discounted valuation combine into a compelling investment case.
• Positive Catalysts: Continuous record bookings, strategic refocusing, and sustainability innovation establish a platform for further re-rating as new catalysts emerge.

In light of these factors, the stock appears poised for a new bullish phase, with robust fundamentals and supportive technicals justifying a seriously renewed interest from investors. For PH-based portfolios looking to capture the resurgence of global consumer discretionary spend—while participating in the recovery of an iconic sector brand—Carnival seems to represent an excellent opportunity at current levels.

In summary, Carnival Corporation’s distinctive positioning, paired with its tangible operational and financial recovery, present an exciting landscape for discerning investors. As the market recognizes this turnaround, CCL could very well become one of 2025’s most rewarding travel and leisure sector stories.

How to buy Carnival stock in PH?

Buying Carnival Corporation (CCL) stock online is straightforward and secure when done through a regulated broker. Philippine-based investors can choose between two main methods: spot buying (direct ownership of shares) or trading via CFDs (Contracts for Difference, which allow speculation on price movements without owning shares). Each option has unique features and fees to consider. To help you get started with confidence, we’ll compare popular online brokers and their costs for Philippine investors further down this page.

Spot Buying: Own Carnival Shares Directly

A cash or spot purchase of Carnival stock means you become a direct shareholder, eligible for potential capital gains. Using most online brokers, you pay a fixed commission per order, typically ranging from PHP 250 to PHP 400 (roughly USD $5–$7). Prices and fees vary, so always check your broker’s terms.

Example

Carnival share price: USD $22.25
With a USD $1,000 investment (around PHP 56,000), you can buy about 44 shares of Carnival, after a USD $5 brokerage fee.

• Gain scenario: If Carnival’s stock rises by 10%, your holding is now worth USD $1,100.
• Result: +USD $100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial investment.

Trading via CFD: Leverage and Short-Term Speculation

CFDs allow you to trade Carnival shares without taking ownership, offering flexibility and leverage (often up to 5x or more). Instead of a commission, you generally pay a spread (the gap between buy/sell prices) and overnight financing charges if keeping positions open longer than a trading day.

Example

With USD $1,000 (around PHP 56,000) and 5x leverage, you gain exposure to USD $5,000 worth of Carnival shares.

• Gain scenario: If the share price increases by 8%, your total gain is 8% × 5 = +40%.
• Result: +USD $400 profit—on a $1,000 outlay (before accounting for spreads and daily financing costs).

Final Advice

Before investing, always compare brokers’ fees, platform features, and customer support. Your best choice depends on whether you want to build long-term wealth (spot buying) or pursue short-term opportunities with leverage (CFDs). A detailed broker comparison for the Philippine market is provided further down this page to help you start your investment journey in Carnival stock with clarity and confidence.

Our 7 tips for buying Carnival stock

The latest news about Carnival

Carnival Corporation's stock has surged over 15% in the past week, reflecting robust investor enthusiasm. This significant weekly gain was supported by optimistic market sentiment and strong trading volumes, with the average daily turnover reaching 26.9 million shares. The stock closed at $22.25 on May 27, 2025, and is trading above most of its major moving averages, signaling ongoing bullish momentum. Analysts project further gains, with a consensus price target of $28.93, suggesting approximately 30% potential upside from current levels.

The company reported record first quarter revenue and achieved a dramatic turnaround in profitability. For Q1 2025, Carnival delivered $1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA, marking a 38% increase year-over-year, and produced an adjusted net income of $174 million versus a loss of $180 million in the prior period. The results notably outperformed internal expectations, exceeding December guidance for EBITDA by $165 million. These improvements underline the successful execution of the company’s post-pandemic recovery strategy and restoration of demand.

Carnival continues to register record booking volumes and all-time high customer deposits, reinforcing future revenue visibility. Demand for cruise vacations remains exceptionally strong, with forward bookings and deposits at their highest levels ever. This trend is expected to benefit Southeast Asian source markets, including the Philippines, as Filipino travelers form a vital labor and passenger demographic for international cruise lines and as travel continues to recover regionally.

The group’s consolidation strategy in Asia–Pacific, including the sunsetting of P&O Cruises Australia, positions Carnival to streamline its regional operations. From March 2025, the operational integration of P&O Cruises Australia into Carnival Cruise Line is designed to enhance efficiencies and brand focus in APAC. This could result in expanded offerings and improved deployment of vessels in nearby markets, with Filipino crew and sourcing playing a significant operational role—important for both local employment and the Philippine travel trade.

Technical indicators for the stock remain positive, with bullish signals contributing to strong near-term momentum. Current technicals feature a bullish MACD crossover, an RSI near 60.5 (neutral-to-strong), and the price remaining above the 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages. Support at $19.20 and resistance at $23.70 and $27.77 suggest well-defined trading ranges. These signals, alongside improving fundamentals, reinforce a constructive outlook on the stock’s trajectory, which is of interest to investors in the Philippines tracking U.S.-listed consumer discretionary leaders.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.