Should You Buy Alibaba Group Stock in 2025? Insights for PH Investors

What is Alibaba Group?

How much is Alibaba Group stock?

The price of Alibaba Group stock is declining this week. As of now, the share trades at $120.73, reflecting a 24-hour decrease of -0.62% and a weekly drop of -4.61%. Alibaba holds a market capitalization of $289.58 billion, with an average 3-month daily trading volume of 5.5 million shares. Its P/E ratio stands at 15.92, dividend yield is 0.87%, and stock beta is 0.97.

Given the recent dip alongside mixed technical signals, investors in PH should be mindful of short-term volatility when considering Alibaba's long-term growth potential.

Our full analysis on Alibaba Group stock

Having thoroughly examined Alibaba Group’s most recent financial results and its stock performance trajectory over the past three years, our analysis leverages a blend of leading financial metrics, technical indicators, and competitive sector data synthesized through our proprietary algorithms. Across multiple dimensions—from revenue momentum and technical structure to disruptive innovation and capital returns—Alibaba stands out as a formidable technology leader. So, why might Alibaba Group stock once again become a strategic entry point into the dynamic global tech ecosystem as we approach 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) has experienced a pronounced turnaround over the past year, with its share price surging +68.1% from its 52-week low, settling at $120.73 as of May 27, 2025. While the latest week reflected a modest decline of -4.61%—partly explained by sector-wide retracements—investors have continued to demonstrate robust long-term confidence, underpinned by positive earnings momentum and strategic actions by management.

Key positive events shaping the stock’s narrative include:

• Aggressive capital return policy: Alibaba executed $11.9 billion in share buybacks in FY2025—reducing the outstanding float by 5.1%—alongside both regular and special cash dividends, directly enhancing shareholder value.
• Strategic repositioning: The company’s operational overhaul and leadership refresh, with Eddie Wu as CEO and Joseph C. Tsai as Chairman since late 2023, have invigorated Alibaba’s go-to-market approach, particularly in cloud and AI.
• Macroeconomic support: The gradual stabilization in China’s economic conditions, improving domestic consumption, and a measured approach to tech regulation have rekindled investor optimism for large-cap Chinese technology stocks—including Alibaba.

Despite ongoing competitive and regulatory headwinds, the sector’s tailwinds—such as digital adoption, cloud migration, and artificial intelligence integration—continue to create a favorable scenario for Alibaba’s multi-vertical growth engine.

Technical Analysis

Alibaba’s technical landscape reveals a compelling setup for prospective investors. The share price, now at $120.73, rests comfortably above its 100-day ($116.35) and 200-day ($103.79) moving averages—traditionally reliable signals of medium- to long-term strength. While the short-term picture is more nuanced, with the price trading slightly below both the 20-day ($124.55) and 50-day ($123.89) SMAs, key oscillators provide an encouraging view:

• MACD (12,26,9): At 0.56, the MACD line remains above its signal line, suggesting latent buy-side momentum despite recent consolidation.
• RSI (14): Standing at 46.10, the RSI is in neutral territory, providing ample upside potential before any overbought conditions emerge.
• Support & Resistance: Multiple support levels in the $119.63–$120.88 zone offer downside protection, while resistance layers at $122.13 and $123.38 present near-term upside triggers.

Structurally, a mixed but improving technical profile favors disciplined accumulation at or near current levels, especially as medium- and long-term bullish trends persist. Historically, such price action has often preceded significant upward moves once near-term consolidation phases resolve.

Fundamental Analysis

Alibaba’s fundamentals are not just resilient—they are increasingly attractive on both absolute and relative metrics:

• Revenue Growth & Profitability: For fiscal 2025, Alibaba delivered annual revenue of $137.3 billion (+6% YoY), while net income soared +77% YoY to $17.36 billion, underscoring a powerful recovery in profitability. Adjusted EBITA jumped +36% YoY in Q4 alone.
• Attractive Valuation: The current P/E ratio of 15.92 is notably below many global tech peers, reflecting a discount that may prove unwarranted amid double-digit EPS growth and a steadily improving PEG ratio.
• Strength across Segments: Core e-commerce activities (Taobao & Tmall) continue to drive growth, posting +9% YoY revenue gains, while the Cloud Intelligence Group’s topline grew +18% YoY. Crucially, AI-related cloud revenue maintained triple-digit expansion for the seventh consecutive quarter, positioning Alibaba as a key player in Asia’s digital transformation.
• Brand and Innovation Leadership: The Qwen3 AI model series, launched in April 2025, highlights Alibaba’s R&D edge—serving as both a growth and margin lever as customers demand ever-more intelligent cloud services.
• Shareholder Alignment: Massive share buybacks, regular and special dividends, and management’s explicit focus on operating efficiency combine to reward long-term shareholders and reinforce confidence in the company’s future cash flows.

In sum, Alibaba’s fundamentals—robust earnings power, prudent capital allocation, and ongoing innovation—justify renewed institutional and retail interest, particularly given the clear valuation gap relative to major U.S. and Asian tech giants.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading an average of 5.5 million shares daily over the past three months, Alibaba remains one of the most liquid large-cap non-U.S. technology stocks on the NYSE, underscoring persistent market confidence. The recent reduction in outstanding shares, from aggressive buybacks, creates a more dynamic float, amplifying the share price’s potential response to further positive catalysts.

Sustained high volume at and above current price levels signals solid institutional participation and limits the risk of severe illiquidity even during bouts of market volatility. For Philippine investors accustomed to tighter local market floats, Alibaba’s deep liquidity represents a unique avenue to access global tech growth in a robust trading environment.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several forward-looking catalysts support a constructive medium- to long-term outlook for Alibaba:

• AI-Driven Transformation: The ongoing rollout of Qwen3 and related proprietary hybrid reasoning models positions Alibaba at the forefront of Asia’s artificial intelligence revolution. Management’s guidance on triple-digit AI cloud revenue growth suggests these initiatives will become major topline and margin drivers.
• Shareholder Returns: Recent dividend hikes (including a $0.95 special dividend per ADS) and continued share repurchases underscore Alibaba’s commitment to returning capital, a rare quality among Asian tech majors.
• Expansion of High-Value Customer Segments: The 88VIP loyalty program has crossed the 50 million-member mark, reflecting Alibaba’s ability to attract and retain the platform’s most lucrative user cohort.
• Resilient E-Commerce and Accelerating International Growth: Taobao & Tmall remain domestic leaders, while the International Digital Commerce group posted +22% YoY revenue growth, narrowing losses and indicating critical progress toward profitability.
• Improved Regulatory Environment: The easing of some regulatory pressures in China and gradual normalization in cross-border capital flows have removed significant overhangs, allowing for smoother execution of strategic initiatives.
• Operational Discipline: Focused cost controls and operational streamlining have produced margin gains across several business units, enhancing Alibaba’s earnings leverage as macro conditions improve.

Collectively, these drivers suggest Alibaba may be entering a favorable upward cycle, with multiple levers to unlock further shareholder value.

Investment Strategies

Alibaba’s current risk-reward profile appeals to a broad spectrum of investment strategies:

• Short-Term Entry:
• Accumulate positions near strong support levels ($120–$121), capitalizing on the current consolidation and neutral RSI for tactical trades.
• Watch for breakout confirmations above $123.38 as a technical reset could trigger a momentum rally.
• Medium-Term Investment:
• Position ahead of anticipated fundamental catalysts, particularly quarterly earnings and further updates on AI/cloud revenues.
• Alibaba’s discounted valuation (P/E below 16) combined with visible EPS growth offers attractive risk-adjusted upside for investors looking at 6–12 month horizons.
• Long-Term Holdings:
• Leverage Alibaba’s innovation leadership, entrenched market position, and growing international scope to capture sustained growth across cycles.
• The company’s capital return framework through dividends and buybacks aligns with the interests of patient investors seeking both appreciation and income streams.

For Philippine investors seeking exposure to premium global technology names, Alibaba’s current technical structure and strategic transformation phase constitute an ideal window for staggered accumulation—particularly as the stock consolidates above medium- and long-term moving averages.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Alibaba Group?

Bringing together the strands of our robust analysis, Alibaba Group presents a standout combination of scale, fundamental resilience, technical strength, and powerful upside catalysts. The company’s renewed earnings momentum, disciplined capital return program, and emerging AI/cloud dominance position its shares for continued strategic re-rating. While near-term technical signals urge tempered optimism, the medium- and long-term structures—both operationally and on the price chart—suggest that Alibaba may be entering a new bullish phase.

Given the stock’s attractive valuation, strong liquidity, and multi-dimensional growth levers, Alibaba Group’s current levels seem to represent an excellent opportunity for investors aiming to participate in global tech growth. The evidence points to a company with the financial and strategic wherewithal to seize on sector tailwinds and reward shareholders as the digital economy scales further heights.

For well-informed investors in the Philippines and beyond looking to diversify into world-class technology leadership at a rare valuation, Alibaba Group’s stock may be poised for significant appreciation as we move through 2025. In a market environment increasingly hungry for both growth and stability, Alibaba provides a rare synthesis of both—making it a candidate worthy of renewed consideration and strategic accumulation.

How to buy Alibaba Group stock in PH?

Buying Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) stock online has never been more straightforward or secure for investors in the Philippines, thanks to regulated international brokers. You can access Alibaba shares either through traditional spot buying—where you own real shares—or via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow leveraged trading without direct ownership. Each method caters to different investor profiles and objectives. Interested in learning which broker offers the best conditions and lowest fees for your needs? See our detailed broker comparison further down this page.

Spot Buying

A cash or “spot” purchase means you buy and directly own Alibaba Group shares in your brokerage account. This is ideal for long-term investors who wish to benefit from share price appreciation and receive dividends. Most brokers charge a fixed commission per trade—often around USD 5, or roughly PHP 290—for international stocks.

Informations importantes

Example: Suppose Alibaba’s share price is $120.73. With a $1,000 investment (approximately PHP 58,000), after a $5 commission, you can buy about 8 shares ($1,000 – $5 = $995; $995 / $120.73 ≈ 8 shares).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10% to $132.80, your 8 shares are now worth about $1,062.40.
- Gross gain: $1,062.40 – $962 (investment after commission) = +$100.40, roughly +10% gross on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on Alibaba’s price movements without owning the underlying shares. CFDs offer flexibility, as you can trade with leverage (multiply your exposure) and go long or short. The main costs are the spread (difference between buy/sell price) and overnight financing fees if you keep positions open beyond the trading day.

Informations importantes

Example: You deposit $1,000 (about PHP 58,000) and open a CFD on Alibaba with 5x leverage. Your position is now equivalent to $5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario: If Alibaba’s price climbs by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
- Net gain: 40% of $1,000 = +$400 (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, always compare brokers’ fees, trading platforms, and regulatory protections—these can significantly impact your net returns. A detailed broker comparator is available further down the page. Your choice should depend on your investment style: choose spot buying if you want long-term ownership and dividends, or CFDs if you seek short-term opportunities with leverage. Either path, Alibaba offers an accessible way to participate in the global tech and e-commerce growth story.

Our 7 tips for buying Alibaba Group stock

The latest news about Alibaba Group

Alibaba reported a strong net income surge and surpassed analyst earnings expectations in Q4 FY2025. The Group delivered RMB 11,973 million ($1.65 billion) in net income for the quarter ended March 2025—a 1,203% year-over-year increase—far outpacing market forecasts, even as revenue came in marginally below expectations. Adjusted EBITA rose 36% year-over-year, confirming strengthened profitability. These results demonstrate resilience and strategic efficiency, particularly relevant for investors in the Philippines as Alibaba’s global stature and partnerships directly impact e-commerce and cloud solution providers operating in the local market.

Alibaba’s International Digital Commerce segment, which includes key PH-facing platforms, reported robust 22% YoY revenue growth. Regional subsidiaries such as Lazada—an established player in the Philippine e-commerce landscape—have been significant contributors to this expansion. The segment’s adjusted EBITA loss narrowed by 13% year-over-year, underscoring operational improvements. For the Philippine market, this signals Alibaba’s commitment to solidifying its position through efficiency gains and continued investment, ensuring the long-term vibrancy and competitiveness of its digital commerce ecosystem in Southeast Asia.

The launch of Alibaba’s Qwen3 AI model series marks a strong signal for future regional technology deployments and B2B services. Announced in April 2025, the Qwen3 series further strengthens Alibaba’s AI and cloud product portfolio, which has experienced triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter. As Philippine enterprises increasingly prioritize digital transformation and cloud adoption, Alibaba’s advances in AI present a direct uplift for local B2B innovation, supporting both digital commerce partners and the country’s broader technological ecosystem.

Alibaba declared both a regular and a special dividend, affirming shareholder value and market confidence. The Board announced a regular cash dividend of $1.05 per ADS alongside a special dividend of $0.95 per ADS during the recent fiscal year, reflecting the company’s strong cash-generating capacity. For Philippine investors—including institutions and funds with regional China-exposure—this demonstrates Alibaba’s ongoing commitment to returning capital, providing stable income streams and reinforcing confidence in the Group’s governance and financial discipline.

Share repurchases totaling $11.9 billion in FY2025 signal executive confidence and support for Alibaba’s share price. By reducing its outstanding shares by 5.1%, Alibaba has directly enhanced shareholder value, offering a constructive signal for both international and Philippine investors. This sizeable buyback, combined with the positive earnings momentum and ongoing investment in Southeast Asia, underscores the Group’s strategic resolve and highlights a vehicle for long-term value creation within regional emerging markets, including the Philippines.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.